Outcome prediction of different groups of patients using a modified scoring system

Background: In this study we aimed to examine the discrimination and calibration of a severity characterization of trauma (ASCOT) in our setting to determine whether its usage is appropriate to predict outcome of our trauma patients. Methods: This study was conducted in three hospitals. All patients admitted in studied hospitals were divided randomly into two equal subgroups. In each group, new coefficients for ASCOT were derived from the first subgroup of patients. Then the newly developed model was validated in the second subgroup and the measures of discrimination and calibration were calculated. Results: 78% of our patients were male and 27% were children. The study mortality rate was 6%, and 20% of patients had penetrating trauma. The average age of our patients was 28 ± 19 (Mean ± Standard Deviation).The area under ROC for ASCOT was 0.96 and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit p value was 0.81. Conclusion: In spite of many differences of the trauma care systems between our country and western countries, current survival probability models can be used in our country after customization and development of new coefficients derived from regional databases.